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EECЕвразия Экономикалык КомиссиясыИш-аракеттерИнтеграция жана макроэкономикаМакроэкономика саясаты департаментиИзилдөөлөрБажы бирлигине жана Бирдиктүү экономикалык мейкиндикке мүчө мамлекеттердин кыска-, орто- жана узак мөөнөттүү перспективага социалдык-экономикалык өнүгүүсүнүн божомолуна (программаларына) салыштырмалуу анализ жөнүндө маалымат (2012-жылдын декабрь айына кар
Бажы бирлигине жана Бирдиктүү экономикалык мейкиндикке мүчө мамлекеттердин кыска-, орто- жана узак мөөнөттүү перспективага социалдык-экономикалык өнүгүүсүнүн божомолуна (программаларына) салыштырмалуу анализ жөнүндө маалымат (2012-жылдын декабрь айына кар

Бажы бирлигине жана Бирдиктүү экономикалык мейкиндикке мүчө мамлекеттердин кыска-, орто- жана узак мөөнөттүү перспективага социалдык-экономикалык өнүгүүсүнүн божомолуна (программаларына) салыштырмалуу анализ жөнүндө маалымат (2012-жылдын декабрь айына кар

 
 1. Comparative analysis  of forecasts of social and economical development of the member-states of the CU and CFMZ for short and middle perspective
 

        The department of the macroeconomical policy of the Eurasian Economic Policy carried out a comparitive analysis of forecasts of  social and economic development  of the member-states of CU and CFMZ (hereinafter - the Parties) for short and middle perspective with the aim of determination of  of general directions and principal  differences in  forecasts of the parties, as well as for the further  development of  the further reference points of macroeconomic policy of CU and CFMZ (attachment No. 1).

         By the structure of forecasts of social and economic development  of the parties for the short and middle perspective and technologies  of their preparation the following general tendencies were revealed, as well as the differences.

 

         Forecast period

Presently, the parties  work out  short and middle  forecasts of SED. Short term forecasts of SEDs in the Republic of Belarus,  the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation are annually worked out, while  the middle term forecast of the CED in Kazakhstan and Belarus  is  worked out for five years  and in Russia for  three years. 

 

         Stages of development (actualization)  of middle term forecasts  of SED.

In the Republic of Belarus the middle term forecast is worked out and approved during one stage, in the Republic of Kazakstan - during two stages, in the Russian Federation  - during  three stages (at two stages the documents are accepted by the government of RF).

 

          Development of options (scenarios) of middle-term forecasts of SED

In the Republic of Belarus the middle -term forecast of SED  does not include  options (scenarios) of development.

Three scenarios are worked out iin the Republic of Kazakhstan depending on external  factors  (price for oil of grade Brent and rates of development of the world economy): pessimistic, basic, optimiostic. the basic scenario is taken  for the middle forecast of the SED forecast.

In the Russian Federation the  forecast is worked out  by the options reflecting the changes  of external conditions (price  for  oil of  Urals grade and  rates of world economy development). Quantity of options may be different  depending on  the economic situation. During the current year  5 options of forecasts  have been worked out: three  main (conservative, moderately optimistic and forced  growth) and two additional  options (negative and optimistic). As the rule,  the moderately optimistical option  is taken as the basic one. 

So, in Kazakhstan and Russia the forecast is formed  with the account of external factors  (forecast parameters). In the Republic of Belarus the external factors  are used in calculations, however,  vividly in the documents they are not shown. Besides,  in Kazakhstan and Russia  prices for oilof various grades are used  as external factors (Brent и Urals respectively), and the RKforecast is only based on  the oil of Brent  grade.


 

Main indices  of short and middle  term forecasts  of social and economic development

Composition of  the main forecast indices of social and economical development of the Parties varies.
The list of general forecast indices, worked out by the Parties:
  • GDP, % to the preceding year;
  •  industrial production index,  % to the previous year;
  • agricultural products,  % to the previous year.

A number of indices exists in forecasts of two countries , but it is unavailable in the third country.

General indices of  Belarus and Russia include:
  • investments to the main capital,  % to the previous year;
  • labour prioductivity, % to the previous year;
  • real possessed monetary incomes of the population, % to the previous year;
  • number (share) of the population  with incomes below the living minimum, in % to the total number of the population (for the Republic of Belarus - the poverty level,  in  % to the number of the total population).

Kazakhstan and Russia have a wider list  of general indices:

  • retail trade turnover, % to the previous year;
  • export and inport of products,. Bln.US dollars; 
  • inflation rate, % of December to December of the previous year).

Social sphere indices:

  • number of the economically active population, mln. persons;
  • level of subsistence per capita, % to the previous year;
  • number (share) of population having the incomes below the minimum of subsistence, in % to the total number of population;
  • unemployment level to the ecomnomically active population, %;
  • number of unemployed persons, mln.persons;
  • number of employed persons,  mln. persons;
  • nominal charged  average wages per one employee, US $.

There are indices represented only in  the forecast of one Party.

In the Republic of Belarus  composition of these  forecast indices include:profitability  of sales  in industrial companies, profitability of sales in agriculture, internalexpenses for  researches and developments,reduction of the level of intensity of use  of products (works, services) in industrial companies (in actual  prices), reduction of power intensity of the gross domestic  product, specific weight  of the shipped  innovation of products of industrial products. 
There are following forecasts for the Republic of Kazakhstan: branch indices in the mining industry and development of open pits, oil and gas condensate extraction, processing industries, etc; indices of the monetary and crediting policy, creits to the economy, deposits of residents, etc;  payment balance sheet inddices: trade balance sheet, current account; social sphere indices: the minimum amount of salaries, number of pensioners,amount of basic pension payment.
There are following forecasts in the Russian Federation: profits by all types of activity, profits of companies for the purposes of  book accouinting, depreciation, the volume of payable services for the population.
Essential differences  in composition of  the forecast indices of social and economic development of the Parties  show the differental approach inestablishment of goals and tasks  of economic development. Inclusion of these or those  forecast indices is stipulated  with the role and degree of application of the considered documents in the system of strategic planning and scales of application of this planning system  in the member-states  of the CU and EEC. 
In the Republic of Belarus in  2015 the highest rates of growth  in CU and EEC are planned for  growth of the national economy: 11-12% against 6.9% – in the Republic of Kazakhstan and 4.5% – in the Russian Federation.
Economic growth in the Republic of Belarus is mainly planned at the expense  of growth of industrial production (by 9-10.5% in 2015) and agricultural production (by 7-8%) under conditions of accelerated  growth of labour productivity (in  2013 – 9.3%, in 2015  – 11.1-12.1%).
In Kazakhstan and Russia there are forecasts of more moderate industrial production growth – 6.5% and 3.7% to 2015, respectivelu.  Growth rates of agricultural products in Kazakhstan - 4.2% to  2015, in Russia – 2.8% to 2015 году. It should be noted that labour productivity  in Russia by the forecast will grow  (3.9% - in 2013, 5.1% – in 2015 году). Labour productivity indices are nor reflected in the Republic of Kazakhstan (there are  certain indices of  labour productivity in agriculture and processing industry, but not a single  feature exists).
There are forecasts of inflation stabilization in Kazakhstan on the level of   6-8% in 2013-2017, and in Russia - deceleration of inflation  growth down to  4-5% to 2015 (the data on inflation dynamics are not included  to the forecast for the Republic of Belarus).
Main priority directions of social and economic development  of the Parties in the middle term perspective.
Main priorities of economic growth are indicatedin the middle-term forecast of the social and economic development  of the Republic of Belarus and  the Russian Federation.                                   

As for the middle term forecast of the Republic of Kazakhstan  the main  directions of economic growth for the forecast period is not given.  Meanwhile,  there is a reference in this forecast  toprioritive  directions of development  defined  in the Address of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan  to the people for the next decade. 

General priority directions of the Parties may include:
  • growth of the well-being level  of the population (growth of the incomes level; better access and quality of services in health care and education; improvement of human resources potentials;  the required level of provision of residential areas; safety for citizens and society; ecological safety);
  • modernization of all economic sectors;
  • stimulation and extension of undertakings;
  • provision of efficiency of the state management system – higher quality of state services for the population;
  • well-balanced regional development;
  • innovation development and support of  highly technological  economic sectors.

Apartb from  general priority directions of economic growth of the Parties  there are peculiarities  and differences reflected in forecasting documents.

In the Republic of Belarus  the priorities are directed to development and  modernization of  of the production sector, i.e:
  • establishment of new science intensive  and highly technological productions;
  • development of import substituting productions;
  • export growth of commodities and services, balance and efficiency of foreign trade;
  • regional development.

In the Republic of Kazakhstan the aforesaid  socially oriented and investing and innovating  directions of economic development are prioritive in the Republic of Kazakhstan for all member-states of the CU and EEC. Modernization of judicial and law-enforcing systems is also  one of the priorities  of development in Kazakhstan. 

In the Russian Federation an essential accent is made  to social direction (high standards of well being of people and national consent, etc). Apart from these spheres of economic development  a big deal of atention is paid to:

  • modernization of highly technological production;
  • adaptation of the national economy to requirements of the Customs Union and WTO;
  • modernization of the defense complex and armed forces;
  • improvement of stability of the national financial system, transition to  the budgetary rule and inflation reduction;
  • maintenance of the high level of national safety and defense capability.

Development of main branches of economy within the frameworks of middle term forecasts of social and economic development of the parties
Presently, there are  common main priority branches of economy,with  their development vector is etermined for the middle-term and long-term perspective, i.e:

1. The fuel and power complex  (hereinafter -  FPC) with priority directions including:
  • oil extraction;
  • gas extraction;
  • coal mining;
  • peat extraction (for the Republic of Belarus);
  • production of petroleum products.

2. Production of electric power.
3. Metallurgic production.
4. Chemical industry.
5. Machione engineering.
6. Production of non-metal mineral products (construction materials).
7. Light industry.
8. Pharmaceutic industry.
9. Agroindustrial complex.
10. Informational technologies.
11. Innovations in various sectors of economy
12. Transport.
13. Communication.
14. Services (tourism, residential and communal facilities, houshold servicing, etc).

Meanwhile,  there are differences in  priorities of development of sectors of economy of the parties.
The Republic of Belarus is planning to develop biotechnological  production which stipulates establishment  of new types of products - immunobiological preparations, DNA-marking  in certification, oriented cultivation of economically valuable cultures of  microorganisms, etc.  These developments are also used for restoration of  polluted ecological systems  and improvement of  efficiency of oil strata. 
Priority directions also include   wood processing and manufacture of  wooden products, cellulose and paper production, as  prospects of development  of this industry are rather high.
There are following  priorities in development of the chemical industry: manufacture of mineral fertilizers and rubber goods due to the growing internal demand.
In the Republic of Kazakhstan one of the priority directions includes  development of nuclear power engineering for provision of  accelerated  industrial and innovation development  of the country by means of  increased volume of uranium production,establishment of new  productions of the nuclear and fuel  cycle, development of  infrastructure of the nuclear power engineering  and nuclear science. 
Special attention in the middle-term  forecast of the Republic of Kazakhstan is paid to development of alternative power engineering directed to  increased share  of renewable sources of power  (small hydraulic  power plants, sun units) in the power balance sheet of the country.
In the field of power saving there are plans to reduce power intensity of the gross domestic product for at least by 10% to 2015.
In 2017 a specialized exhibition "EXPO-2017" will be held in Astana for the topic "Power in future" which will make it possible  to  show  world power saving technologies (use of  alternative power sources) and contribute to  the innovation  development of power engineering.
In the Russian Federation a big deal of attention  is paid to development of machine engineering industries, in particular:
  • manufacture of electric equipment, electronic and optical equipment;
  • manufacture of automobiles; 
  • development  of cosmic equipment  which will result in  increased number of launches  of spaceships and, respectively,  to growth of  volumes of  manufacture of carrier missiles, upper stage blocks, spaceships of  social, economic, scientific and military intention; 
  • power machine engineering.

2. The comparative analysis of programs (strategies, plans) of social and economic  development of the member-states of the CU and EEC for the long perspective. 

 

All three states - CU and EEC members - are ready to accept the documents which determine the perspectives  of social and economic development  for the long perspective.

Long-term programs (plans, strategies)  of social and economic development are aimed at improvement of well-being of citizens, development of  economic, social, political spheres, strengthening of  positions in the world community.

Simultaneously, during the analysis ddifferences were determined in the sphere of approaches to assessment of development of the parties (attachment No. 2).

 

Acceptance level and  period of development  of long-term programs


In the Republic of Belarus in May 2004 the National Commission  for steady development  of the Republic of Belarus and the Presidium of  the Council of Ministers  of the Republic of Belarus approved  the National Strategy of steady  social and economical development  of the Republic of Belarus for a period by 2020.


By the order of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, dated November 4, 2006, No. 1475, "Main directions  of social and economic development of the Republic of Belarus for the years 206-2015" were approved.


In the Republic of Kazakhstan the strategy of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan by the year 2030 was provided in the form of the Address of the President of the country to the people of Kazakhstanin 1997.


By the order of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, dated February 1, 2010, No.922 the strategic plan of development  of the Republic of Kazakhstan by 2020 was approved. 


In the Russian Federation  - by the order of the Goverment of the Russian Federation, dated November 17, 2008, No.1662, the Conception of long-term  social and economic development of the Russian Federation  for a period by  2020  was approved.


By the order of the President of RF, dated May 7, 2012, No. 596 priorities of the long-term  state  economic policy  of the Russian Feeration  were approved.


Besides,  scenario terms were worked out for the long-term prognosis  of the social and economical development  of the Russian Federation by  2030. 

Key priorities of development by the year 2020


In the Republic of Belarus the key priority of provision of steady development  is transition to  the innovation way  of development, implementation of general systematic transformations of economy and society.


In the Republic of Kazakhstan the priority direction is  steady provision of economy growth owing to  accelerated diversification  by means of industrialization and development of infrastructure.


In the Russian Federation the  key priority is  transition from the export and raw material  model to  the innovation  model of economic growth in connection with the formation of a new mechanism of social development  based on the good balance of  freedom of undertakings, social justice and  national concurrency. 


So,  innovation development of economy is stipulated in all states  in the long-term perspective  for the following directions:

the Republic of Belarus:

  • social policy, development of the human potential and social sphere;
  • development of the real economical sector;
  • rational use of natural resources and environment preservation for future generations.

the Republic of Kazakhstan:

  • preparation to post-crisis development;
  • acceleration of economy diversification;
  • investments  to the future  (higher competitiveness of the human potential for achievement of steady economic growth, flourishing and social well-being);
  • provision of high-quality social and residential and communal services for  the population;
  • strengthening of international  harmony, safety, stability of international relations.

The Russian Federation:

  • development of the human potential;
  • establishment of the  competitive  institutional  environment, which stimulates  the undertaking activity and capital invilvement to the economy;
  • structural diversification of the economy  on the basis of  innovation technological development;
  • fixing and extension of  global competitive  advantages of Russia in traditional  speres (power engineering, transport, agriculture, procession of natural resources);
  • broadening and strengthening of  foreign economic positions  of Russia, higher efficiencyof its participation  in the world labour separation;
  • transition to a new model  of spatial development of the economy;

Main features of the long-term  social and economic  development of the states - members  of  the CU and ECS;

Composition of the main features of social and economic development of  the parties strongly varies (attachment No. 3​​).

The list of general features worked out by the Parties fro the long-term perspective:

the gross domestic product per capita by  parity of purchasing power  (GDP production per capita);

  • unemployment level, in % of the economically active population;
  • expected life duration at birth, years (prolongation of  the expected life duration - RF);
  • population, mln. persons.

Common features in Belarus and Russia include:

  • gross domestic product, average annual growth, %;
  • investments,  average annual growth, %;    
  • industrial production, average annual growth, %;
  • expenditures for culture and cinematograph, in % to GDP;
  • habitation provision,square m.per 1 person;
  • poverty level, in %;


Common features in Kazakhstan and Russia include:

  • average annual inflation,growth of prices, in %;
  • foreign investments (direct) (according to the methodology of the payment balance sheet), in% to GDP (a share  of direct foreign investments in GDP);
  • a share of meat procession (RF - increase of meat production);
  • a share of milk procession (RF - increase of milk production);
  • poer intensity, in % to GDP;
  • rating of business doing («Doing Business»), worked out  by  a group of the World Bank companies.

In Belarus and Kazahstan common features  relate to the level of of alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking, as well as assessment of drug addiction level and alcohol abuse.

There are features only providedd in long-term documents of a Party.

It is stipulated in the Republic of Belarus to  increase the gross domestic product in 2020 as compared to 2005 by 2.0–2.3 times, investments to  the basic capital – by 2.4–2.7, industrial products – by 1.6–1.7, agriculture – by 1.6, services – by 2.3–2.6 times.

Economic growth in the Republic of Kazakhstan by  2020 is planned  due to  implementation of plans of economy diversification.  Indices of growth of processing  branches of economy to the planned period will exceed  the indices of the mining industries.  During the planned period  assets of the National Fund  will constitute at least  30% to GDP. uring this period  inflation  will be  kept  on the level of  5 – 8% per annum on average. A share of population having incomes not lower than the living minimum will be reduced  down to  8%.

In the Russian Federation average  annual rates of economy growth by 2020 are planned  on the level of 4.4% per annum, Industrial  production will grow by 3.4%, the poverty level will drop down to 9.9%, inflation  rates will be reduced  down to 5%.

Development of main branches and spheres of economy within the long-term planning  of social and economic development of the Parties

The states -members of the CU and the Common Free Market Zone stipulate development of of the following common branches and spheres of social and economic development: 

  • development of the real sector of economy (industry, fuel and power complex, agroindustrial complex, transport sphere,development of physical culture and sport, development of mass communications, development of the pension system);
  • development of the social sphere (education, health care, labour resources, social protection of population and development  of residential and communal facilities,  development of physical culture and sport, development of mass communications, development of the pension system);
  • development of the financial sector (priorities of the monetary, crediting and budgetary policy, priorities of development offinancial markets and banking sector);
  • development of information and communication technologies;
  • ecological safety.

The parties also try to expand and strengthen  foreign economic and international cooperation.

Besides, in the Republic of Belarus the following spheres  must get the top priority status: informatization and software production; nano-technologies and nano-materials; power facilities  modernization; bio-technology and genetics; science and  the sphere of services (education, health care, tourism, transport, etc); development  of small and middle undertakings. 

In the Republic of Kazakhstan traditional industries will primarily be developed: gas and oil sector, mining and metallurgical complex, nuclear and chemical industries, development  of sectors based on demand of users of bowels of earth, national and state companies:  machine engineering, construction industry, defense industry, pharmaceutical industry, production development which is not linked with   raw materials and which are predominantly oriented  to export:  agroindustrial complex, light industry, tourism;development  of  sectors of "economy of the future", which will play the dominating role in the world economy during subsequent 15-20 years: informational and communication  technologies, bio-technologies, alternative power engineering.

In the Russian Federation  highly technological industries will be developed: aviation, missile and cosmic industry, shipbuilding industry, radio electronic industry, nuclear power complex. A number of strategies, long-term federal state programs  are directed for development of the aforesaid sectors. Besides,  top priority  directions in social and economic spheres will include  high standards of well-being of people, social prosperity, safety of citizens and the society, economy of leadershipand innovations, the economy  which is competitive  on the world level, etc. 

3. Proposals for determining the top priority sectors (spheres, industries) of economy on the basis of  comparative analysis  of forecasts (programs) of social and economic development  of the member-states of the Customs Union and the Common Free Market Zone in the short, middle and long perspective. 

On the basis of the performed analysis of short, middle and long programs (forecasts) of social and economic development  of the member-states of the Customs Union and the Common Free Market Zone it is proposed  to determine the following priority industries (including  mutually complemented, import substituting and export oriented) which are interesting for all Parties, as well as  special branches  for each Party for development of the main directions  of economic development and   main reference points of the macroeconomic policy.

Priority industries (branches):

  • information and communication  technologies;
  • development of alternative sources of power
  • manufacture of articles made of non-ferrous metals;
  • transport (transit potential development);
  • nano- and bio-technologies;
  • tourism.

Mutially complemented import substituting  industries:

  • pharmaceutic industry (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
  • manufacture of construction materials (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
  • food production (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
  • mchine engineering (Belarus, Russia).

Export oriented industries:

  • oil and gas extraction and refinery (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
  • chemical industry (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
  • forestry, woodworking,cellulose and paper industries (Belarus, Russia);
  • production of mineral fertilizers (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
  • uranium production  and implementation of the full  nuclear fuel cycle  (Kazakhstan, Russia);
  • production of ferrous metals (Kazakhstan, Russia);
  • production of aluminium (Kazakhstan, Russia);
  • titanium production(Kazakhstan, Russia);

Specialized industries:

The Republic of Belarus:

  • petrochemical industry;
  • production of potassium fertilizers;
  • manufacture of machinery  and equipment  (including manufacture of high-power farm tractors);
  • flax production.

The Republic of Kazakhstan

  • production of non-ferrous metals and alloys (copper, zinc, lead);  
  • production of rare and rare-earth metalsand alloys.

The Russian Federation:

  • aviation industry;
  • missile and cosmic industry;
  • shipbuildding inddustry;
  • radio-electronic industry;
  • nuclear power industrial complex.