The department of the macroeconomical policy of the Eurasian Economic Policy carried out a comparitive analysis of forecasts of social and economic development of the member-states of CU and CFMZ (hereinafter - the Parties) for short and middle perspective with the aim of determination of of general directions and principal differences in forecasts of the parties, as well as for the further development of the further reference points of macroeconomic policy of CU and CFMZ (attachment No. 1).
By the structure of forecasts of social and economic development of the parties for the short and middle perspective and technologies of their preparation the following general tendencies were revealed, as well as the differences.
Forecast period
Presently, the parties work out short and middle forecasts of SED. Short term forecasts of SEDs in the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation are annually worked out, while the middle term forecast of the CED in Kazakhstan and Belarus is worked out for five years and in Russia for three years.
Stages of development (actualization) of middle term forecasts of SED.
In the Republic of Belarus the middle term forecast is worked out and approved during one stage, in the Republic of Kazakstan - during two stages, in the Russian Federation - during three stages (at two stages the documents are accepted by the government of RF).
Development of options (scenarios) of middle-term forecasts of SED
In the Republic of Belarus the middle -term forecast of SED does not include options (scenarios) of development.
Three scenarios are worked out iin the Republic of Kazakhstan depending on external factors (price for oil of grade Brent and rates of development of the world economy): pessimistic, basic, optimiostic. the basic scenario is taken for the middle forecast of the SED forecast.
In the Russian Federation the forecast is worked out by the options reflecting the changes of external conditions (price for oil of Urals grade and rates of world economy development). Quantity of options may be different depending on the economic situation. During the current year 5 options of forecasts have been worked out: three main (conservative, moderately optimistic and forced growth) and two additional options (negative and optimistic). As the rule, the moderately optimistical option is taken as the basic one.
So, in Kazakhstan and Russia the forecast is formed with the account of external factors (forecast parameters). In the Republic of Belarus the external factors are used in calculations, however, vividly in the documents they are not shown. Besides, in Kazakhstan and Russia prices for oilof various grades are used as external factors (Brent и Urals respectively), and the RKforecast is only based on the oil of Brent grade.
Main indices of short and middle term forecasts of social and economic development
Composition of the main forecast indices of social and economical development of the Parties varies.
The list of general forecast indices, worked out by the Parties:
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GDP, % to the preceding year;
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industrial production index, % to the previous year;
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agricultural products, % to the previous year.
A number of indices exists in forecasts of two countries , but it is unavailable in the third country.
General indices of Belarus and Russia include:
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investments to the main capital, % to the previous year;
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labour prioductivity, % to the previous year;
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real possessed monetary incomes of the population, % to the previous year;
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number (share) of the population with incomes below the living minimum, in % to the total number of the population (for the Republic of Belarus - the poverty level, in % to the number of the total population).
Kazakhstan and Russia have a wider list of general indices:
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retail trade turnover, % to the previous year;
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export and inport of products,. Bln.US dollars;
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inflation rate, % of December to December of the previous year).
Social sphere indices:
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number of the economically active population, mln. persons;
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level of subsistence per capita, % to the previous year;
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number (share) of population having the incomes below the minimum of subsistence, in % to the total number of population;
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unemployment level to the ecomnomically active population, %;
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number of unemployed persons, mln.persons;
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number of employed persons, mln. persons;
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nominal charged average wages per one employee, US $.
There are indices represented only in the forecast of one Party.
In the Republic of Belarus composition of these forecast indices include:profitability of sales in industrial companies, profitability of sales in agriculture, internalexpenses for researches and developments,reduction of the level of intensity of use of products (works, services) in industrial companies (in actual prices), reduction of power intensity of the gross domestic product, specific weight of the shipped innovation of products of industrial products.
There are following forecasts for the Republic of Kazakhstan: branch indices in the mining industry and development of open pits, oil and gas condensate extraction, processing industries, etc; indices of the monetary and crediting policy, creits to the economy, deposits of residents, etc; payment balance sheet inddices: trade balance sheet, current account; social sphere indices: the minimum amount of salaries, number of pensioners,amount of basic pension payment.
There are following forecasts in the Russian Federation: profits by all types of activity, profits of companies for the purposes of book accouinting, depreciation, the volume of payable services for the population.
Essential differences in composition of the forecast indices of social and economic development of the Parties show the differental approach inestablishment of goals and tasks of economic development. Inclusion of these or those forecast indices is stipulated with the role and degree of application of the considered documents in the system of strategic planning and scales of application of this planning system in the member-states of the CU and EEC.
In the Republic of Belarus in 2015 the highest rates of growth in CU and EEC are planned for growth of the national economy: 11-12% against 6.9% – in the Republic of Kazakhstan and 4.5% – in the Russian Federation.
Economic growth in the Republic of Belarus is mainly planned at the expense of growth of industrial production (by 9-10.5% in 2015) and agricultural production (by 7-8%) under conditions of accelerated growth of labour productivity (in 2013 – 9.3%, in 2015 – 11.1-12.1%).
In Kazakhstan and Russia there are forecasts of more moderate industrial production growth – 6.5% and 3.7% to 2015, respectivelu. Growth rates of agricultural products in Kazakhstan - 4.2% to 2015, in Russia – 2.8% to 2015 году. It should be noted that labour productivity in Russia by the forecast will grow (3.9% - in 2013, 5.1% – in 2015 году). Labour productivity indices are nor reflected in the Republic of Kazakhstan (there are certain indices of labour productivity in agriculture and processing industry, but not a single feature exists).
There are forecasts of inflation stabilization in Kazakhstan on the level of 6-8% in 2013-2017, and in Russia - deceleration of inflation growth down to 4-5% to 2015 (the data on inflation dynamics are not included to the forecast for the Republic of Belarus).
Main priority directions of social and economic development of the Parties in the middle term perspective.
Main priorities of economic growth are indicatedin the middle-term forecast of the social and economic development of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation.
As for the middle term forecast of the Republic of Kazakhstan the main directions of economic growth for the forecast period is not given. Meanwhile, there is a reference in this forecast toprioritive directions of development defined in the Address of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the people for the next decade.
General priority directions of the Parties may include:
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growth of the well-being level of the population (growth of the incomes level; better access and quality of services in health care and education; improvement of human resources potentials; the required level of provision of residential areas; safety for citizens and society; ecological safety);
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modernization of all economic sectors;
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stimulation and extension of undertakings;
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provision of efficiency of the state management system – higher quality of state services for the population;
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well-balanced regional development;
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innovation development and support of highly technological economic sectors.
Apartb from general priority directions of economic growth of the Parties there are peculiarities and differences reflected in forecasting documents.
In the Republic of Belarus the priorities are directed to development and modernization of of the production sector, i.e:
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establishment of new science intensive and highly technological productions;
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development of import substituting productions;
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export growth of commodities and services, balance and efficiency of foreign trade;
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regional development.
In the Republic of Kazakhstan the aforesaid socially oriented and investing and innovating directions of economic development are prioritive in the Republic of Kazakhstan for all member-states of the CU and EEC. Modernization of judicial and law-enforcing systems is also one of the priorities of development in Kazakhstan.
In the Russian Federation an essential accent is made to social direction (high standards of well being of people and national consent, etc). Apart from these spheres of economic development a big deal of atention is paid to:
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modernization of highly technological production;
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adaptation of the national economy to requirements of the Customs Union and WTO;
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modernization of the defense complex and armed forces;
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improvement of stability of the national financial system, transition to the budgetary rule and inflation reduction;
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maintenance of the high level of national safety and defense capability.
Development of main branches of economy within the frameworks of middle term forecasts of social and economic development of the parties
Presently, there are common main priority branches of economy,with their development vector is etermined for the middle-term and long-term perspective, i.e:
1. The fuel and power complex (hereinafter - FPC) with priority directions including:
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oil extraction;
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gas extraction;
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coal mining;
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peat extraction (for the Republic of Belarus);
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production of petroleum products.
2. Production of electric power.
3. Metallurgic production.
4. Chemical industry.
5. Machione engineering.
6. Production of non-metal mineral products (construction materials).
7. Light industry.
8. Pharmaceutic industry.
9. Agroindustrial complex.
10. Informational technologies.
11. Innovations in various sectors of economy
12. Transport.
13. Communication.
14. Services (tourism, residential and communal facilities, houshold servicing, etc).
Meanwhile, there are differences in priorities of development of sectors of economy of the parties.
The Republic of Belarus is planning to develop biotechnological production which stipulates establishment of new types of products - immunobiological preparations, DNA-marking in certification, oriented cultivation of economically valuable cultures of microorganisms, etc. These developments are also used for restoration of polluted ecological systems and improvement of efficiency of oil strata.
Priority directions also include wood processing and manufacture of wooden products, cellulose and paper production, as prospects of development of this industry are rather high.
There are following priorities in development of the chemical industry: manufacture of mineral fertilizers and rubber goods due to the growing internal demand.
In the Republic of Kazakhstan one of the priority directions includes development of nuclear power engineering for provision of accelerated industrial and innovation development of the country by means of increased volume of uranium production,establishment of new productions of the nuclear and fuel cycle, development of infrastructure of the nuclear power engineering and nuclear science.
Special attention in the middle-term forecast of the Republic of Kazakhstan is paid to development of alternative power engineering directed to increased share of renewable sources of power (small hydraulic power plants, sun units) in the power balance sheet of the country.
In the field of power saving there are plans to reduce power intensity of the gross domestic product for at least by 10% to 2015.
In 2017 a specialized exhibition "EXPO-2017" will be held in Astana for the topic "Power in future" which will make it possible to show world power saving technologies (use of alternative power sources) and contribute to the innovation development of power engineering.
In the Russian Federation a big deal of attention is paid to development of machine engineering industries, in particular:
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manufacture of electric equipment, electronic and optical equipment;
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manufacture of automobiles;
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development of cosmic equipment which will result in increased number of launches of spaceships and, respectively, to growth of volumes of manufacture of carrier missiles, upper stage blocks, spaceships of social, economic, scientific and military intention;
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power machine engineering.
2. The comparative analysis of programs (strategies, plans) of social and economic development of the member-states of the CU and EEC for the long perspective.
All three states - CU and EEC members - are ready to accept the documents which determine the perspectives of social and economic development for the long perspective.
Long-term programs (plans, strategies) of social and economic development are aimed at improvement of well-being of citizens, development of economic, social, political spheres, strengthening of positions in the world community.
Simultaneously, during the analysis ddifferences were determined in the sphere of approaches to assessment of development of the parties (attachment No. 2).
Acceptance level and period of development of long-term programs
In the Republic of Belarus in May 2004 the National Commission for steady development of the Republic of Belarus and the Presidium of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus approved the National Strategy of steady social and economical development of the Republic of Belarus for a period by 2020.
By the order of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, dated November 4, 2006, No. 1475, "Main directions of social and economic development of the Republic of Belarus for the years 206-2015" were approved.
In the Republic of Kazakhstan the strategy of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan by the year 2030 was provided in the form of the Address of the President of the country to the people of Kazakhstanin 1997.
By the order of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, dated February 1, 2010, No.922 the strategic plan of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan by 2020 was approved.
In the Russian Federation - by the order of the Goverment of the Russian Federation, dated November 17, 2008, No.1662, the Conception of long-term social and economic development of the Russian Federation for a period by 2020 was approved.
By the order of the President of RF, dated May 7, 2012, No. 596 priorities of the long-term state economic policy of the Russian Feeration were approved.
Besides, scenario terms were worked out for the long-term prognosis of the social and economical development of the Russian Federation by 2030.
Key priorities of development by the year 2020
In the Republic of Belarus the key priority of provision of steady development is transition to the innovation way of development, implementation of general systematic transformations of economy and society.
In the Republic of Kazakhstan the priority direction is steady provision of economy growth owing to accelerated diversification by means of industrialization and development of infrastructure.
In the Russian Federation the key priority is transition from the export and raw material model to the innovation model of economic growth in connection with the formation of a new mechanism of social development based on the good balance of freedom of undertakings, social justice and national concurrency.
So, innovation development of economy is stipulated in all states in the long-term perspective for the following directions:
the Republic of Belarus:
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social policy, development of the human potential and social sphere;
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development of the real economical sector;
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rational use of natural resources and environment preservation for future generations.
the Republic of Kazakhstan:
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preparation to post-crisis development;
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acceleration of economy diversification;
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investments to the future (higher competitiveness of the human potential for achievement of steady economic growth, flourishing and social well-being);
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provision of high-quality social and residential and communal services for the population;
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strengthening of international harmony, safety, stability of international relations.
The Russian Federation:
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development of the human potential;
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establishment of the competitive institutional environment, which stimulates the undertaking activity and capital invilvement to the economy;
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structural diversification of the economy on the basis of innovation technological development;
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fixing and extension of global competitive advantages of Russia in traditional speres (power engineering, transport, agriculture, procession of natural resources);
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broadening and strengthening of foreign economic positions of Russia, higher efficiencyof its participation in the world labour separation;
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transition to a new model of spatial development of the economy;
Main features of the long-term social and economic development of the states - members of the CU and ECS;
Composition of the main features of social and economic development of the parties strongly varies (
attachment No. 3).
The list of general features worked out by the Parties fro the long-term perspective:
the gross domestic product per capita by parity of purchasing power (GDP production per capita);
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unemployment level, in % of the economically active population;
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expected life duration at birth, years (prolongation of the expected life duration - RF);
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population, mln. persons.
Common features in Belarus and Russia include:
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gross domestic product, average annual growth, %;
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investments, average annual growth, %;
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industrial production, average annual growth, %;
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expenditures for culture and cinematograph, in % to GDP;
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habitation provision,square m.per 1 person;
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poverty level, in %;
Common features in Kazakhstan and Russia include:
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average annual inflation,growth of prices, in %;
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foreign investments (direct) (according to the methodology of the payment balance sheet), in% to GDP (a share of direct foreign investments in GDP);
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a share of meat procession (RF - increase of meat production);
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a share of milk procession (RF - increase of milk production);
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poer intensity, in % to GDP;
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rating of business doing («Doing Business»), worked out by a group of the World Bank companies.
In Belarus and Kazahstan common features relate to the level of of alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking, as well as assessment of drug addiction level and alcohol abuse.
There are features only providedd in long-term documents of a Party.
It is stipulated in the Republic of Belarus to increase the gross domestic product in 2020 as compared to 2005 by 2.0–2.3 times, investments to the basic capital – by 2.4–2.7, industrial products – by 1.6–1.7, agriculture – by 1.6, services – by 2.3–2.6 times.
Economic growth in the Republic of Kazakhstan by 2020 is planned due to implementation of plans of economy diversification. Indices of growth of processing branches of economy to the planned period will exceed the indices of the mining industries. During the planned period assets of the National Fund will constitute at least 30% to GDP. uring this period inflation will be kept on the level of 5 – 8% per annum on average. A share of population having incomes not lower than the living minimum will be reduced down to 8%.
In the Russian Federation average annual rates of economy growth by 2020 are planned on the level of 4.4% per annum, Industrial production will grow by 3.4%, the poverty level will drop down to 9.9%, inflation rates will be reduced down to 5%.
Development of main branches and spheres of economy within the long-term planning of social and economic development of the Parties
The states -members of the CU and the Common Free Market Zone stipulate development of of the following common branches and spheres of social and economic development:
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development of the real sector of economy (industry, fuel and power complex, agroindustrial complex, transport sphere,development of physical culture and sport, development of mass communications, development of the pension system);
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development of the social sphere (education, health care, labour resources, social protection of population and development of residential and communal facilities, development of physical culture and sport, development of mass communications, development of the pension system);
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development of the financial sector (priorities of the monetary, crediting and budgetary policy, priorities of development offinancial markets and banking sector);
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development of information and communication technologies;
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ecological safety.
The parties also try to expand and strengthen foreign economic and international cooperation.
Besides, in the Republic of Belarus the following spheres must get the top priority status: informatization and software production; nano-technologies and nano-materials; power facilities modernization; bio-technology and genetics; science and the sphere of services (education, health care, tourism, transport, etc); development of small and middle undertakings.
In the Republic of Kazakhstan traditional industries will primarily be developed: gas and oil sector, mining and metallurgical complex, nuclear and chemical industries, development of sectors based on demand of users of bowels of earth, national and state companies: machine engineering, construction industry, defense industry, pharmaceutical industry, production development which is not linked with raw materials and which are predominantly oriented to export: agroindustrial complex, light industry, tourism;development of sectors of "economy of the future", which will play the dominating role in the world economy during subsequent 15-20 years: informational and communication technologies, bio-technologies, alternative power engineering.
In the Russian Federation highly technological industries will be developed: aviation, missile and cosmic industry, shipbuilding industry, radio electronic industry, nuclear power complex. A number of strategies, long-term federal state programs are directed for development of the aforesaid sectors. Besides, top priority directions in social and economic spheres will include high standards of well-being of people, social prosperity, safety of citizens and the society, economy of leadershipand innovations, the economy which is competitive on the world level, etc.
3. Proposals for determining the top priority sectors (spheres, industries) of economy on the basis of comparative analysis of forecasts (programs) of social and economic development of the member-states of the Customs Union and the Common Free Market Zone in the short, middle and long perspective.
On the basis of the performed analysis of short, middle and long programs (forecasts) of social and economic development of the member-states of the Customs Union and the Common Free Market Zone it is proposed to determine the following priority industries (including mutually complemented, import substituting and export oriented) which are interesting for all Parties, as well as special branches for each Party for development of the main directions of economic development and main reference points of the macroeconomic policy.
Priority industries (branches):
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information and communication technologies;
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development of alternative sources of power
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manufacture of articles made of non-ferrous metals;
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transport (transit potential development);
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nano- and bio-technologies;
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tourism.
Mutially complemented import substituting industries:
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pharmaceutic industry (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
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manufacture of construction materials (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
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food production (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
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mchine engineering (Belarus, Russia).
Export oriented industries:
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oil and gas extraction and refinery (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
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chemical industry (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
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forestry, woodworking,cellulose and paper industries (Belarus, Russia);
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production of mineral fertilizers (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan);
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uranium production and implementation of the full nuclear fuel cycle (Kazakhstan, Russia);
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production of ferrous metals (Kazakhstan, Russia);
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production of aluminium (Kazakhstan, Russia);
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titanium production(Kazakhstan, Russia);
Specialized industries:
The Republic of Belarus:
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petrochemical industry;
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production of potassium fertilizers;
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manufacture of machinery and equipment (including manufacture of high-power farm tractors);
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flax production.
The Republic of Kazakhstan
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production of non-ferrous metals and alloys (copper, zinc, lead);
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production of rare and rare-earth metalsand alloys.
The Russian Federation:
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aviation industry;
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missile and cosmic industry;
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shipbuildding inddustry;
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radio-electronic industry;
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nuclear power industrial complex.