Medium-term macroeconomic forecast of economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States

The forecast of the main indicators of economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States (before 2015 – the CU and the SES) in the medium term is one of the key analytical materials of Macroeconomic Policy Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission.

The forecast shall be formed to implement the functions of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting established by the Agreement on the agreed macro-economic policy dated December 9, 2010 and will allow estimating a macroeconomic situation of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in the medium term (within 3 years).

The forecast shall be formed by the Eurasian Economic Commission together with the Eurasian Development Bank on a quarterly basis. During its preparation, an understanding of current socio-economic situation of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States shall be formed, dynamics of foreign economic environment and risks shall be discussed with the authorized authorities of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States, and assessments and simulations using the model tool shall be performed​.

2018-2021 Forecast of the Main Indicators of Economic Developmentof the EAEU Member States (updated as of the end of the 1st quarter of 2019)

The EAEU member states’ economy is expanding. Under the conditions of the economic upturn all member states except for Kyrgyzstan demonstrated in 2018 economic growth rates higher than average over the last 6 years. Economic growth in Belarus and Russia reached its maximum for this period. The EAEU’s GDP increased by 2,5% in 2018 driven by favorable external economic conditions, expansion in the global economy and trade, gradual loosening of the monetary policy.

At the same time, short-term economic indicators show the nearing end of the expansion phase and the upcoming gradual slowdown of economic growth in 2019. This is due to both global factors (gradual tightening of the monetary policy in a number of developed and developing countries in response to growing imbalances, escalation of trade tensions) and escalation of trade tensions at the regional level, reduction of local growth-stimulating effects in 2018.

Short-term decrease in commodity prices in the 4th quarter of 2018 can have a negative impact on the key macroeconomic indicators, on the external and internal trade. In this regard EAEU member states’ GDP growth rates are projected to decline in 2019 not exceeding 1,6% mainly because of the expected significant economic slowdown in Russia (to 1,4%) and Belarus (to 1,2%) as well as due to slowing economic growth in other countries.



Main indicators of economic development of the EAEU member states​


Methodological materials on establishing the medium-term forecast of economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union

The medium-term forecast of economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States (before 2015 – the CU and the SES) shall be developed on the basis of official statistical information and data of international organizations using multi-country dynamic stochastic model of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting Dynamic Stochastic Forecasting Policy Analysis System (hereinafter – the DSFPAS). The DSFPAS model is a semi-structural model built on the basis of the neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for open economy. For each country, the model includes the aggregate supply and demand blocks, the financial sector and monetary policy blocks, the fiscal block, and the external sector block for the Member States, taking into account the channels of mutual influence.

The forecast shall be published in the format of analytical reference containing a brief assessment of the current macroeconomic situation of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States, the forecast dynamics of the main macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth indicators, components of GDP for use (total consumption of households and the state sector, gross savings, exports and imports), and consumer inflation.​