The Department of Macroeconomic Policy calculates the leading indicators of economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States (before 2015 – the CU and the SES) (participants in economic activities).
These indicators characterize short-term development prospects subject to the processes in various economy sectors as well as the expectations of economic agents. In order to improve the sustainability of results, the leading indicators for each country shall be combined into one Consolidated Leading Indicator.
Consolidated Leading Indicators shall be used by the Commission for the following purposes:
- to form the idea of changing the direction of the dynamics of economic activity in the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in the short term;
- to assess strengthening or weakening of the current risks of economic development, including to prepare recommendations on the implementation of preventive measures;
- to improve the quality of forecast indicators of economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in the current year.
Methodological materials on establishing leading indicators of the Commission
The indicators shall be calculated in accordance with the methodology developed on the basis of the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), but making better use of the available amount of initial information.
Given the fact that the impact of indicators and their predictive power can vary over time, as well as taking into account the changes in the amount of available reporting information, the Consolidated Leading Indicator shall be recalculated twice a year (on or about July-December) in accordance with methodological approaches.
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