Economic Forecasts

In order to ensure the sustainability of the economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in the context of rapidly changing market environment and the emergence of macroeconomic imbalances, it is required to have tools enabling to form a vision of the dynamics of economic activity in the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in the short term. Short-term forecasting tools of the Commission enable predicting the dynamics of the key macroeconomic indicator - GDP - for a period of up to 6 months.​

In order to analyze the macroeconomic dynamics in the medium term (up to 3 years), medium-term forecasting tools based on structural economy models of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States are used. Their use makes it possible to obtain consistent forecast trajectories of the main macroeconomic variables on a quarterly basis. By contrast with short-term forecasting, the effects of mutual influence of the the Eurasian Economic Union Member States are taken into account on the medium-term horizon.

The analysis of the long-term dynamics of economic indicators (10 years or more) implies scenario forecasting of macroeconomic variables. At the same time, the dynamics of variables, on the long-term horizon, are influenced not only by national factors (adopted national strategic documents) and the effects of mutual influence, but also the potential for integration and the effectiveness of integration actions.​