Researches
The Department conducts research activity on key areas of macroeconomics of the Eurasian Economic Space. The tool used for macroeconomic analysis allows to assess impact of external shocks on the economy, in general, and on separate institutional sectors, in particular, as well as to assess impact of internal resolutions (government policies) on the economic performance of the Parties in the medium term.
Details of the comparative analysis of forecasts (programs) of socio-economic development of the Member-States of the Customs Union and Single Economic Space in the short-, medium-and long-term (as of December 2012) (in Russian).
Analytical report on public debt in the CU and the SES Member-States
Joint report on enhancing stability of the economies of the SES Member-States in the face of crisis processes in the global economy (crisis processes in the global economy and anti-crisis strategies of the SES Member-States)
Assessment of the integration processes within the Single Economic Space demonstrated by the example of trade in goods
Macroeconomic Policy Department conducts research on the current and future status of individual sectors of the economy, analysis of the impact of adopted resolutions on the economic and business environment, as well as certain aspects of operation of Single Economic Space. Its main objective consists in development of recommendations in order to enhance cooperation and develop integration processes, elaborate the unified approaches as to the future development of the Customs Union and Single Economic Space.
Line of research “Macroeconomic Modeling”
Article 7 of the Agreement on the Agreed Macroeconomic Policy defines the Commission as the body coordinating the conduction of the agreed macroeconomic policy of the Member-States of the Customs Union and Single Economic Space. Article 4 of the Agreement defines vectors of economic development of the Member-States of the Customs Union and Single Economic Space (the Parties) for a three-year period. Article 5 of the Agreement provides for adoption and subsequent monitoring of the criteria that define exceptional circumstances in which quantitative parameters that determine stability of economic development of the Parties may be revised.
In presence of downturns the Commission shall elaborate proposals to rectify the established adverse trend taking into account all reasonable efforts to prevent adverse effects for the economies of other Parties.
The effective execution of the Commission's powers in these areas requires the use of advanced tools and the modeling tool for forecasting the key macroeconomic performances, forecasting the development of different institutional sectors of the economy, particularly under conditions of the planned structural policy measures and the impact of external uncontrolled factors, and for assessing the effect of measures taken to correct the adverse economic situation, in respect of prevention of the adverse impact of these measures on the economies of other Parties.
The Department develops cascade models for macroeconomic forecasting. These are models of short-term simulation (dynamic factor models), model of medium-term forecasting (non- structural VAR and structural models) and long-term forecasting.
The models being developed are designed to estimate the effects of macroeconomic policies on the economies of nation states and partner states of the CU and SES (general equilibrium model, GVAR).
The effects of tariff and non-tariff regulation measures on trade flows of the foreign and mutual trade in the Customs Union are also modeled and examined.
Line of research “Integration and Convergence”
The Department develops the complex of macroeconomic performances that feature the degree of integration of the economies of the Member-States of the CU and SES. The Department is engaged in development of the convergence criteria and the mechanism of calculation of the rate of convergence of the economies of the Member-States of the CU and SES.
Analytical report on public debt in the CU and the SES Member-States
Joint report on enhancing stability of the economies of the SES Member-States in the face of crisis processes in the global economy (crisis processes in the global economy and anti-crisis strategies of the SES Member-States)
Assessment of the integration processes within the Single Economic Space demonstrated by the example of trade in goods
Research on Leading Indicators
Leading indicators are set to determine phases of economic cycle as well as a forecast of business cycles turning points - fluctuations in economic activity.
The purpose of construction of Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is to build an understanding of a changing dynamics of economic activity in the CU and the SES Member-States in the short term.
Practical implementation of such indicators enables to rely on the most up-to-date information about socio-economic development when making an analysis as well as to build an understanding of possible upward or downward revision of forecasts (obtained via other models) depending on current trends.
